Why an Israel-Iran war is more likely than not

The Gaza war appears to be nearing its end with signs of agreements emerging, Hamas and Israel being closer in distance and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah announcing that there will be no retaliatory conflict for the deaths of around 500 Hezbollah leaders. This is in addition to the remains of dead Israeli hostages now being handed over.

However, in my opinion, the upcoming agreement won’t prevent future confrontations between Iran and Israel. This time, war was on the brink. Unless both nations work to avoid future conflicts, which would require significant compromises, Iran’s strategy of encirclement will probably lead to a war between these two regional powers. For the past four decades, the proxy confrontations have continued, with intermittent long truces that caused limited damage.

How do we know that a war between Tehran and Tel Aviv is no longer as unlikely as we once thought?

The Hamas raid on October 7 was different – a qualitative shift in the conflict between these camps, awakening deep fears in Israel. Israel perceived it as an existential threat, and its retaliatory attack also took a different approach. Israel decided to dismantle the Hamas regime in Gaza. It wants to restore its deterrence policy, where any attack on Israel comes with a high price, and to reinforce its image as a regional superpower. During this war, Israel has shown that it is capable of waging long battles, 11 months so far, across multiple fronts: Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, and Yemen.

Israel has demonstrated terrifying intelligence and advanced military capabilities. Without entering even an inch of Lebanese territory, Israel managed to eliminate half of Hezbollah’s leaders. It also targeted several Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders and boldly assassinated a Hamas leader in Tehran itself.

While the Gaza war is an Israeli affair, any future war with Iran would involve both Israel and the West

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Internally, a significant portion of Israelis, particularly the elite, may dislike Netanyahu and his religious allies, but they have still united behind him. Despite heavy casualties among Israeli forces, the billions of dollars bleeding from the Israeli economy, and his failure to eliminate Hamas’ leadership, none of this has forced Netanyahu to stop the war.

While the Gaza war is an Israeli affair, any future war with Iran would involve both Israel and the West. Israel is now more prepared than ever for a large-scale conflict, with naval fleets stationed and ready for a major war with Iran, marking one of the region’s largest military buildups. This is a clear signal to Tehran that Iran and its regime will bear the cost. Despite Russia’s statements, visits from Russian officials, and the rapid deployment of military aid to counter any airstrikes on Iran, this escalation is unlike any previous conflict in the region since the 1973 war. It may lead Iran to reconsider the futility of confronting Israel, or will it push it to build up greater capabilities?

The Cairo negotiations are on the verge of achieving an end to the fighting in Gaza, but it won’t end the readiness for war with Iran and Hezbollah.

Since the beginning of the war last year, Israel has been preparing for a conflict beyond Gaza. It has deployed backup power generators across the country, filled water tanks, intensified cybersecurity measures, and stockpiled several months-worth of food supplies. Israel claims it can generate electricity from a diverse array of sources, on land, underground, and in the sea. If the electrical grid is destroyed, a backup system will restore power within seven minutes. Israel has also prepared bunkers for hundreds of thousands of people as a second line of defense, should the Iron Dome fail. The entrenchment mentality and preparing for war plays a crucial role in driving decisions toward conflict.

For decades, Israel’s main strategy has been based on the likelihood of a regional war, once focused on Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Today, this strategy is targeted against Iran, which it views as the primary existential threat, due to its pursuit of a nuclear military capability and missile development that could reach Israel’s major cities. This makes Iran – not its proxies – the next target for Israel.

In this war, Iran was unable to save Hamas and chose to protect Hezbollah by keeping it out of the fight. The attempt to open a front in Jordan failed, and Syria refrained from allowing Iranian-backed armed groups to use its territory for military action. The Houthis in Yemen were the only ones involved but pulled back from targeting Israel after its vital facilities in the Hodeidah port were destroyed.

In my opinion, an Israeli-Iranian war is not unlikely, given the continued military buildup, Iranian expansion, and Israel’s refusal to recognize a Palestinian state.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya News Channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. Twitter: @aalrashed